India's metro train expansion has been a costly endeavor, with billions invested in the hope of alleviating congestion in major cities. However, the reality on the ground paints a different picture. The Aqua Line in Mumbai, for instance, is a prime example of underutilization, with ridership figures falling far short of expectations. This trend is not isolated; it reflects a broader issue plaguing India's metro network expansion. Since 2014, the Narendra Modi government has poured over $26 billion into metro connectivity across 24 cities, resulting in a fourfold increase in the network's length and a near-quadrupling of daily ridership. Yet, the actual numbers tell a different story, with most metro systems failing to meet even a fraction of their projected ridership. The Indian Institute of Technology Delhi's 2023 report revealed that ridership across corridors was a mere 25-35% of projected figures, a statistic that likely remained unchanged in 2024 and 2025. This underperformance is not unique to Mumbai; studies by the Observer Research Foundation and the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy show similar low ridership rates in cities like Kanpur, Chennai, Pune, and Nagpur. The reasons behind this underutilization are multifaceted. Firstly, consultants' inaccurate demand projections often exaggerate the economic viability of these projects. The offered capacity on trains, such as coach numbers and frequency, is frequently unfulfilled, leading to longer wait times and less frequent services. For instance, in Bengaluru, peak-hour train frequency on the busiest line is five minutes or more, while newer lines have frequencies of up to 25 minutes. Secondly, affordability is a significant concern. A single journey on the Aqua Line costs 10-70 rupees, making it prohibitively expensive for lower-income workers, who may spend up to 20% of their income on integrated travel, surpassing the global benchmark of 10-15%. The reduction in subsidies, as noted by experts, further exacerbates this issue. The London Tube, for instance, remains heavily subsidized to provide sustainable mobility and decongest cities, a strategy that India may need to reconsider. Poor network planning and last-mile connectivity also contribute to the problem. High transit times between lines and the lack of feeder buses for last-mile connectivity discourage people from using public transport. In Delhi, it can take almost 15-20 minutes to transfer between lines at stations like Hauz Khas. Additionally, concerns about women's safety and the lack of convenient walkways around metro stations further deter usage. Residents like Chetna Yadav, who lives in north Delhi, express fear and inconvenience when using the metro after sunset due to the difficulty in obtaining cabs at the final stop. Despite these challenges, experts predict a gradual improvement in metro use. The increasing traffic, pollution, parking, and road safety issues in Indian cities have sparked calls for congestion pricing for private vehicles. However, without a cheaper and more seamless metro ride, a swift and dramatic rise in adoption is unlikely. The key to success lies in integrating bus services, improving station access, and fare integration. As Aditya Rane suggests, the systems that get these aspects right are more likely to see a strong improvement in ridership, ensuring that India's metro investments are not just operationally useful but also meet their original projections.
