Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, has made a bold prediction about Bitcoin's future, claiming that the cryptocurrency's bull market has already begun and could reach a price of $126,000. In his essay, 'The Butterfly Touch', Hayes argues that the current bull market is driven by a combination of factors, including AI spending, wartime policies, and a shift away from just-in-time supply chains. He believes that these factors are pushing governments and banks towards looser credit conditions, which will benefit Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
One of the key arguments Hayes makes is that AI infrastructure spending is becoming a national security priority in both the US and China. This makes monetary restraint politically difficult, as both countries view machine intelligence as strategically decisive. Hayes argues that this shift is already moving beyond the cash flows of large technology companies and into the credit channel, which will pressure banks and central banks to support capital expenditure for data centers, electricity generation, and AI infrastructure.
Hayes also invokes Jevons Paradox and the Red Queen Effect to argue that AI investment is structurally inflationary and potentially self-reinforcing. He believes that cheaper intelligence will increase total compute consumption, and that companies must keep spending to keep up with rival model improvements. This cycle, according to Hayes, will only end when markets reject a major AI financing event or when political rhetoric in the 2028 US presidential race turns sharply against AI-driven inflation.
In terms of Bitcoin's price, Hayes predicts that it has already bottomed out at $60,000 and that a return to $126,000 is a foregone conclusion. He also identifies $90,000 as a key level where the rally will intensify, and suggests that over-writers of call options could be forced to cover once the strike is breached. Hayes acknowledges that he has no idea how high Bitcoin can go, but he is willing to take his portfolio to 'maximum risk' unless conditions change materially.
Hayes' thesis is not limited to AI. He also argues that the US-Iran conflict and disruptions to commodity flows could push governments outside the US to rethink their dependence on dollar financial assets. According to Hayes, countries that previously stored surpluses in Treasuries or US equities may instead redirect capital towards defense, energy, pipelines, food reserves, and other physical infrastructure. This shift, he argues, would leave US policymakers with an incentive to keep financial conditions easier than they otherwise would be, through tools such as dollar swap lines and looser bank capital rules.
Finally, Hayes closes the essay with a risk-on message for crypto markets, suggesting that it is 'time to shitcoin'. He names Hyperliquid's HYPE and Zcash's ZEC as already-large positions, while identifying NEAR as his next preferred trade. Hayes argues that the NEAR thesis will be expanded in his next essay and will focus on the privacy narrative combined with Near intents, which could create a positive cash flow situation for the protocol and potentially reverse the token's weak long-term price performance.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $80,680, which is a significant distance from Hayes' predicted price of $126,000. However, his analysis and predictions are based on a complex interplay of economic, political, and technological factors, and it remains to be seen whether his bullish outlook will be realized.
